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Tesla’s 2020 (the year ahead)

Tesla’s 2020 (the year ahead)


Hey, I’m Steven and this is Solving The
Money Problem. If you’re new here, welcome. For everyone else, I’m glad you’re back. In this video I’m discussing what’s in
store for Tesla in 2020 and what it means from an investor’s point of view. If you want me to cut to the chase, I will. 2020 looks great for Tesla, its mission and
its stock. I can’t predict the future, but I can look
at what we already know and reason from there. So, let’s do exactly that. China As I’ve said previously, Tesla and China
are in the midst of a heated romance with all kinds of favours being provided. [zipper sound effect] Doors have been opened, exemptions and exceptions
have been made, approvals have been accelerated. China’s government wants EVs and Tesla to
succeed. Gigafactory 3 was built in 10 months flat. 10 f**king months from muddy field to model
3 production. It’s absolutely nutty how fast Tesla got
stuff done in China. Tesla have applied all their prior learnings
to Gigafactory 3 — the machine that builds the machine — ensuring not only was it BUILT
faster and more efficiently, but it will PRODUCE faster and more efficiently. And while Tesla have told analysts to expect
margins comparable to made-in-United States Model 3s, I don’t believe that’s the full
story. Their current sale price is about $10,000
higher than made-in-US versions. Once production is ramped, Tesla will be enjoying
very healthy margins thanks to lower labour costs and new efficiencies in the manufacturing
process. So how on earth will the margins be about
the same? I believe what Tesla means is that margins
will END UP the same. If Tesla’s production begins to exceed demand
(which would be a first in the history of the company), they will slowly lower prices
on made-in-China Model 3s to maintain an equilibrium between supply and demand. Eventually, these price reductions will see
much lower sale prices while maintaining comparable margins to the US version. As this happens, Tesla will utterly murder
BMW, Mercedes and other premium brands — electric or otherwise as well as sucking customers
up out of lower price point in what’s known as the ‘Tesla Stretch’. There’s nothing happening here but winning
on Tesla’s part. They’ll enjoy massive margins once Model
3 production ramps. Then, if they need to, they can lower prices
incrementally to sustain demand. China is the world’s largest EV market and
entering is a strategically brilliant move for Tesla. Don’t say I didn’t warn you. Gigafactory 4 – Berlin The Berlin Gigafactory is moving ahead with
rumors of Tesla seeking to break ground (at their risk) before the purchase has officially
completed just to gain more time. I suspect we’ll see Gigafactory 4 go from
forest to almost-done in 2020 with initial output of 250,000 vehicles per year. Future expansions may see annual capacity
grow to 750,000 units. The Semi The Semi is a sleeper product. Because companies–not individuals–will be
the buyers of Tesla’s Semi, it’s flying under the radar but its potential to Tesla’s
business is enormous. The 2 million Semi trucks operating the United
States transport 68% of all goods. This is a HUGE market. Tesla will begin limited production in 2020. They already have hundreds of pre-orders from
companies like Walmart, UPS and DHL but I imagine Tesla will begin using the Semi’s
for their own logistics first (saving a mountain of money), before producing Semis for customer
delivery. The business case for Semi is so compelling
it’s absurd — in most cases, the fuel savings alone will pay for the entire purchase price
within 2 years. Except in extreme cases, you’d pretty much
need to be a moron not to replace your entire semi fleet with electric versions as soon
as possible. It’s hard to see Tesla being able to manufacture
enough Semis to meet demand for years. With a median price of $165,000, we’re talking
billions in revenue. Roadster When it’s released, the new Roadster is
going to be the final nail in the coffin to Internal Combustion Engine vehicles. It’s motto is basically “Anything you
can do, I can do way f**king better, b**ch, so get out of my way”. I don’t expect Tesla to sell millions of
new Roadsters BUT, just 50,000 units would generate $10 billion in high-margin revenue. The Plaid Model S & X Tesla is delivering a second “f**k you”
to the legacy auto industry in the form of the Plaid Model S and X. If you thought the outrageousness of a raven
performance Model S was ludicrous, wait for plaid. Porsche forced Tesla to let this one out of
the bag early by trying to show how much quicker their electric Taycan was around a notoriously
difficult race track — the Nürburgring. They’ve got to beat Tesla at something, right? Well, a few days later, a mysterious Plaid
Model S turned up at the same track, recording an unofficial time that put the Taycan to
shame. Then, another PLaid Model S turned up and
clocked an even faster time. Those who want performance but don’t have
$200,000 to spare will increasingly find themselves drawn to the Plaid S and X, not because they’re
electrice, but because they’re so damn good. Big Batteries Maybe you’ve heard about the gigantic battery
projects Tesla are doing. The thing about these is that work. Really well. So well, in fact, that that the people in
charge of making decisions like whether to implement a big battery solution to stabilize
a power grid and lower energy costs for consumers will be all over Tesla big batteries unless
they’re unaware of the option, or they’re just not very smart. [Have the world’s biggest Banana. Have the world’s biggest banana, have the world’s biggest prawn] – Australian Prime Minister [um, like we have on the roadside on the highways around the country] – Australian Prime Minister [but that’s not solving the problem] – Australian Prime Minister [This big battery is already playing a key role in stabilizing the grid] – Reporter [And it’s doing so with a speed, precision and agility] – Reporter [That’s never been seen before] – Reporter These big ticket items continue to see growing
demand which will help Tesla’s bottom line. Don’t say I didn’t warn you. Solar Roof Tesla is doubling down on solar now that Model
3 production is humming along and finally the Solar Roof is complete — and boy is it
compelling. The Solar Roof is about the same cost as a
regular premium roof. One of them prints you money. The other does not. It doesn’t take a genius to understand the
economics here. Solar Roof will be massive once consumers
learn about it. And with pricing around the same as a base
Model 3, it will contribute SUBSTANTIALLY to Tesla’s revenue. Don’t say I didn’t warn you. Virtual Power Plants As the Tesla-powered Virtual Power Plant in
South Australia continues to save the day, keep the lights on, reduce energy prices and
expand from its current 1,100 homes to an utlimate 50,000, Tesla moves closer to its
goal of becoming a giant distributed utility. This is their proof of concept. This thing is working so well, cities around
the world are wanting their own virtual power plants. This alone could spur demand for Solar and
Power Walls toward millions of units per year. We’re talking billions in revenue and totally
disrupting the utility market. Battery and Powertrain Investor Day In early 2020, Tesla is holding a Battery
and Powertrain Investor Day. Spoiler alert (and by spoiler I mean, I’m
just going to guess what will happen since I don’t have my crystal ball with me today). Ready? They’re going to first tell us how stupidly
far ahead their current battery and powertrain technology is. We already know this. Then, they’ll tell us about their next generation
battery technology which will go into production soon and completely destroy the hopes and
dreams of other automakers. Then, Tesla will say “Don’t worry. We’re going to partner with the smart automakers
and sell or licence our battery and powertrain technology to them so they survive. Also, because we’re way better at making
EVs than anyone else, our Gigafactory is becoming a product which we will sell, too. Cashflow Machines Tesla will continue to turn on cashflow machines
as their software team develop new forms of infotainment and performance upgrades. With the recent commencement of premium subscriptions
(which enable dozens of features like live traffic, netflix and YouTube), Tesla has turned
on a tap worth tens of millions in recurring annual income. This is just one example of how Tesla can
make almost PURE profit by releasing upgrades and premium features via over-the-air-software updates. If a customer wants a premium feature, it’s
as easy as downloading an app on a smartphone. This is HUGE. Please understand how important this is. Tesla’s software engineers are among the
best in the world. Tesla will continue to add value via software
and tap into additional revenue streams. As I record this video, Tesla has just commenced
selling “Upgrades” — the first of which is a $2,000 over-the-air “Acceleration upgrade”
for Model 3. Sharing up to half a second off the 0-60 acceleration time. This is one example of the potential of software
to produce new, high-margin streams of cashflow from customers AFTER they have purchased a
vehicle. 100,000 upgrades at $2,000 each is $200,000,000
of revenue. And don’t forget, when full self driving
is solved and your Tesla can drive itself without supervision, the screen becomes everything
Tesla with endless new infotainment possibilities. Tesla Insurance Tesla quietly began offering insurance to
customers in California in 2019 and will continue to roll out insurance–eventually worldwide. The thing about Tesla insurance is, they have
WAY BETTER data than any insurer and far SAFER cars than other automaker. And their cars KEEP getting safer over time. This means Tesla can profitably offer much
lower insurance premiums. Most Tesla owners will opt for Tesla insurance. It’s a no brainer. Free Money Hey guys. Did you know that Tesla makes something so
good their competitors will spend billions to buy it? And the best part about it? This thing is a waste product of Tesla’s
manufacturing process. They don’t want it. It’s useless to them but it’s highly valuable
to others. Guess what it is? Zero Emission Vehicle Credits States are incentivising automakers to transition
to EVs by telling them a certain % of their new vehicles must be zero emissions. If automakers fall below their quotas, they
face gigantic fines. Thing is, many automakers don’t have their
s**t together yet and have resorted to buying credits from Tesla to the tune of BILLIONS
OF DOLLARS. Fiat-Chrysler has agreed to purchase over
$2 billion of these credits within the next year or two. This is FREE MONEY. And trust me, they won’t be the only buyers
of Tesla’s credits. Don’t say I didn’t warn you. Full Self Driving Whether or not you believe Tesla will achieve
Full Self Driving in 2020, you must agree that the continual roll out of new features
*is* bringing us closer. Either way, as new features roll out, more
Full Self Driving revenue (of which there is around half a billion dollars) can be recognised
by Tesla. This revenue will boost quarterly results
throughout 2020. Once Full Self Driving *is* achieved and Tesla
is approved and awakens its fleet of robo-taxis, a truly gargantuan influx of high-margin revenue
will flood in. Don’t say I didn’t want you. As always, there’s loads of other things
I didn’t have time to get to, like the rollout of V3 supercharging, but I’ll save those
for a future video. In summary, 2020 looks like a breakout year
for Tesla with an incredible amount of good news on the horizon and little in the way
of headwinds. The high-margin LEVERS of software Tesla can
pull will transform their financials as they continue to scale globally into the expanding
electric vehicle and sustainable energy markets. There’s still no competition. Tesla are still embarrassingly far ahead,
and they’re not slowing down. In fact, their lead is accelerating. It’s going to be very exciting to watch
Tesla execute on their masterplan in 2020. Don’t say I didn’t warn you. I’m Steven Mark Ryan, this is Solving The
Money Problem, and I love you all. Thanks so much for watching. Let me know your thoughts in the comments
below. How do you see 2020 playing out for Tesla? Are there any headwinds that you’re concerned
about or do you see them having a relatively easy run? And if you have any ideas for future videos,
let me know. I read ALL your comments. p.s. If you’re still watching, you’re AWESOME. This channel has kind of blown up since it
launched and I’m working on making the best possible content for you guys, but it takes
time. Consider supporting the channel at http://patreon.com/solvingthemoneyproblem
so I can continue creating content for you guys. There’s a link in the description. Either way, the best form of support is you
being here and watching, so thanks again.

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100 thoughts on “Tesla’s 2020 (the year ahead)

  1. Didn't even mention the world wide satellite communications network. SpaceX is putting it up with used (already paid for ) boosters. It will be the largest network, with the broadest coverage. It will make tens of billions a year profit.

  2. The roof is no where near the same cost as a traditional roof what are you on about? Teslas website quotes my house at 40,000 but a traditional roof cost my insurance company 15,000

  3. I expect Tesla to be similar to Amazon: Everyone complains about profits and a couple years later people complain how it is a monopoly.

  4. Another awesome video! Keep up the good work!

    They're only making the lower priced versions of the Model 3 in China. With regards to the margins maybe they mean that they'll have a similar margin on these as they have on the top end versions in the US. Even so, I think the margins will still be much better in China!

  5. Tesla represents an existential threat to the motor industry, the oil industry, the gas industry, the vehicle maintenance industry, the vehicle Insurrance industry, the car park industry, Uber, Lyft and, and and shall I go on. Tesla must be stopped at all cost, these guys are truly dangerous. I just love my, s, I must have a 3, and as for the cyber ………OMG!. So destroy them at all costs, but not yet.

  6. So uh is your channel just created and only posting about tesla? This seems a bit weird, though your content is good, idk man

  7. The semi truck is going to be huge. I could see them going straight to 1,000/week production and that still won't be close to enough. 5,000/week would be about right to meet demand once companies see the results of other companies.

  8. What about Renault ZE and the 1200 configurations of the Renault Master ZE at the Bolonge-Billiancourt factory?

  9. Didn't mention the pathetic supply train on spare parts and less than adequate customer service.  As more vehicles get rolled out, this is going to magnify.  Don't say I didn't warn you.

  10. Steven, excellent overview. Truly great. Love the sharp delivery. No surprises about the fast subs growth. Keep smashing it out!.

  11. Do like your content and I do usually agree with you. However, the Solar Roof is actually not competitive. The cost per watt hour is actually very high compared to existing options. In addition, there are other issues such as differences in how roofs are constructed in the USA vs. other countries. It's not as simple as 1 size fits all. Don't say I didn't warn you 😀

  12. i love how you give me hope for the future dude. This is a 100% follow guarantee from me ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️

  13. This is a great summary of Tesla. But didn't mention the Model Y, the Model Y will be more popular than the already popular Model 3. Then there is the Cybertruck with its civilian and military market. Also not mentioned is SpaceX and Boring Company need for Tesla Batteries and the electrification of mining equipment. Also the giant market for electric busses.

  14. In the future autonomous self-driving Smart trailers with all axle drive and steering, will be able to crab to the side (let that sink in).

  15. Next milestone is Q4 report, around end of Jan. Expect additional CapEx for GF1, GF3, a new line for Model Y in Fremont, and the ongoing R&D cost for solar roof tiles. Interest Expense should be at least $200M, and gross margin may be lower due to the 25% tariff. Obviously no stock is without risk, but Tesla has tremendous longterm potential. Awesome vid!

  16. Astute point on how valuable the screen real estate will become once FSD is a reality. BUT OMG man, you actually left out the single largest source for a revenue boost in 2020: The Model Y!!!

  17. Maybe you can address the question of whether and to what extent Musk will give all TESLA vehicles internet access through SpaceX satellites and use the vehicle sensors to provide intelligence to the US intelligence and military services.

  18. If Atlis, Revian and Bollinger come through, I will be happy for the competition for Tesla of course Tesla still has it's solar products to fall back on 🙂 Tesla needs to go to the subscription model like Atlis for their cars. One mistake you make is thinking you will ever be able to play games will the car drives itself. This will take 100 years to accomplish as insurance companies will not go for this while cars are still running over ants on the sidewalk 🙂 And Atlis has Tesla beat on battery and charging technology but your fan boyism for Tesla is cute 🙂

  19. If the next quarter turns out really good, I wouldn't be surprised if the stock triples in 2020 to be honest, it being at $405 at the moment. Their is a whole lot of potential with this company as you have pointed out. They have the smartest and brightest working on all aspects. I think the roadster looks awesome. Would love to see it in blue. I think even the bulls will be surprised at how quickly Tesla stock grows in value. Seems like a 10 bagger to me in the next five years.

  20. Am i the only one that think its fucked up that tesla charges you 2 grand just to unlock better acceleration for a car you already paid 40 grand for. Theyre limiting the car on purpose to milk money out of you

  21. I agree with everything. But I don’t think they are going to licence out GFs. They might, but I think Tesla will need many more to reach 1TW/year battery production. So if they start to, it would more likely be a 2025-2030 thing. But I still dont think they will. They will sell the batteries and motor sleds to other OEMs. Then the other OEMs will want the battery management software, and maybe the whole OS to also get OTA capabilities and if they have the OS, they may as well install some cameras and take advantage of FSD. I expect Tesla would only take a 25% cut of FSD sales giving the rest to the OEMs. But with selling batteries, OS, FSD computers and software, Tesla will stand to make thousands of dollars per vehicle from other OEMs and saving those companies in the process.

  22. Someone: Buys an ICE car and feels disappointment from driving an outdated slow car with no features with expensive service, insurance, taxes and gas.
    Author: Don't say I didn't warn you

  23. so china will not steal tech and make there own eletric car and chinese government will side with tesla and not with chinese eletric auto?

  24. So in 10 years this guy will be the richest and most important human on the planet(s). Nice.

    Now can somebody please tell me how does he take so many good decisions in business? Genuine interest

  25. Hi Steve, you are spot on, short, sharp and to the point. I’ve been following Tesla for several years now. Price point for entry was in June this year at $178 USD 👍. Thanks for your vlog. You have wrapped Tesla up with a nice bow ready for Christmas and the New Year and I couldn’t agree more.

  26. What existing owners really need is more supercharger rollouts. Currently the infrastructure can sustain a classic roadtrip in the US, but during high migration periods it gets a bit squeezed. The day that every gas station has at least a level 2 charger, we'd be much comfortable.
    Right now, there are miles of parking lots that need to be completely converted to EV spaces.

  27. What worries me, I was hoping to invest in Tesla in 2020. It looks like that may not be possible if Tesla goes private. Am I missing something?

  28. If i wanted to transfer knowledge at a high bandwidth, representing everything I have leaned in the last 3 years by being obsessed with TESLA, I would have produced this video ( if i had the skills). Everything he says I can substantiate with detail and facts.

    https://youtu.be/vMqS87u_9nc

    Sent from my iPad

  29. I didn't like this video. It felt bragging and too optimistic. I'd like to see more about the risks involved and the sources. I'm getting a feeling of a bubble, when I'm watching your videos.

  30. I've followed Tesla's every move for the last seven years. The one thing I've learned is to not believe the hype. They are capable of great things, but don't believe anything from them until you see it.

  31. I really like your videos but you seem sometimes seem biased only talking about how Tesla will take the world by storm and make Musk billions

  32. You didn't mention the Cybertruck. I order one on the first day. The specs are awesome, so again, don't say "I didn't warn you".

    And there are tons of idiots shorting the stock.

  33. Sheesh TESLA!!
    who would've thought that tesla of becoming bankrupt in 2007 and now having the LARGEST influence and impact on EVs and sustainability solutions!!!

    Bravo!!

    To Ppl and companies: do the right thing to earth and humanity (great pro ethics) it'll pay off eventually! Tesla is one small example of that!

    Edit:
    My 1st exposure to Tesla was at my first year in college 2015. Some guy made a presentation about EVs. Then i began my research on tesla on 2013 model S down to it's Roadster 2008 and made a report in 2016 on the impact of EVs in multiple areas like personal and environmental impacts. It wasn't a Great report but it was the first report i ever written professionally for a subject a took in college. So thanks Tesla and keep influencing the World.

    I was planning on writing only the first line up top. But something made me going and blah blah till here🤣🤣💔

    Anyways, Great Report Mrs. Solve money problems! Keep it going!

    Edit2: i just want to say, I'm glad I'm alive to witness the launch of monumental Tesla products and see it grow and prosper!

    When Tesla finally comes to my countryin few years i hope, it'll be my car!

  34. How is it that Tesla Motors has ‘hands-down’ the worst if not almost non-existent post lease/purchase customer support and not brought to light more often or taken seriously?!? Pretty much the reason I will not get another Tesla vehicle

  35. Don't say I didn't warn you… Don't say I didn't warn you… the more you say it the more you sound like you are a political shill. This saying seems more like a threat. I want to say I love the idea of change in the auto, power, and any other industry to try to make life easier and less expensive for everyone. However, the approach by you specifically reeks of leftist propaganda. You act like you have knowledge that nobody else has. Much like some "day trader" calling in on MSNBC to one of their useless business shows pushing stock from some unknown business that has just gone public. Don't say I didn't warn you, get in early so are stock prices don't drop. In other words, you need more skepticism in your diet in my humble opinion.

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